LIVEBLOGGING THE US MID-TERM ELECTIONS. I’m travelling to Ali G land for an election party where I hope to get some liveblogging done.
Forecast: US House of Representatives to switch to a big Republican majority. US Senate to be split: 49 Republicans, 49 Democrats, 2 Independents (most people count them as Democrats but crucially for betting purposes, Intrade do not: BIG OPPORTUNITY to make some cash with a “No majority” bet, given Intrade’s rules.
Governors: a lot of changes: Republicans to lose about 5-7 states, but they could win in 12-15, so it’s likely to be 30 Republicans, 19 Democrats and 1 Independent (Connecticut). A Constitution Party candidate could win in Colorado.
For the Democrats, California’s governorship is coming home and they could hold five senate seats with the help of union fixing. If they hold California for governor and hold 50 seats in the Senate, keep House losses to under 50, then can be relieved. In the governor races: pick up California, Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Minnesota, Rhode Island, and Vermont, while holding any of Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania, they’ll be dancing.
If Republicans hold all their Senate seats and only lose two in the House (Delaware 1 and Louisiana 2), pick up 45 House seats from the Democrats, pick up nine Senate seats (anywhere!) and hold Florida’s governorship that’s a great night. Winning Illinois, Ohio and Pennsylvania to add to the almost certain gains in Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Wisconsin and Wyoming.
Independents will play a role in Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Maine, Nevada and Rhode Island, sometimes in Senate races, sometimes in the Governor contests. Most likely winner: former moderate Republican Senator Lincoln Chafee in Rhode Island’s gubernatorial election. Another possible is former Republican Representative Tom Tancredo for Colorado governor. The US left and the oil companies (yes, that’s the unholy alliance in Alaska), will be hoping for a write-in candidate (Lisa Murkowski who was dumped by the Republicans in her primary).
Turnout looks high, which can mean lots of angry voters looking to “toss out the bums” or it can mean that young people and others who tend to stay away have been frightened into actually turning up and defend the Democrats. We shall see.